Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 18.607404 21.501988 24.944506 29.412645 35.170172 42.505159 5.284711e+01
2025-01-26 16.848374 20.907412 26.310921 34.340822 46.587900 65.816361 1.015530e+02
2025-02-02 15.151170 19.638905 26.054581 36.504615 54.555797 88.233143 1.700597e+02
2025-02-09 13.033280 17.303667 23.658065 34.580795 54.967996 97.710151 2.256188e+02
2025-02-16 12.110791 16.508824 23.352925 35.874050 61.553094 124.304251 3.825391e+02
2025-02-23 11.108815 15.428515 22.370581 35.672225 65.027822 146.664296 6.110052e+02
2025-03-02 10.282586 14.508071 21.488050 35.415809 68.280212 172.037112 1.043587e+03
2025-03-09 9.700984 13.905687 21.047676 35.911775 73.615701 211.672150 2.332495e+03
2025-03-16 8.941238 12.928408 19.806243 34.465017 73.249786 229.042361 4.247524e+03
2025-03-23 8.457095 12.367294 19.250174 34.391721 76.837205 272.049697 1.689797e+04
2025-03-30 7.819238 11.489760 18.007076 32.543251 74.354044 279.318427 4.846303e+04
2025-04-06 7.197543 10.598892 16.661656 30.267674 69.861641 269.803417 9.917419e+04
2025-04-13 6.658828 9.842758 15.556960 28.522314 67.049893 272.522323 3.186875e+06
2025-04-20 6.849260 10.379858 17.011893 33.231900 89.234238 557.956612 NaN
2025-04-27 6.740727 10.366168 17.364191 35.291469 103.669991 939.548613 NaN
2025-05-04 6.312510 9.730353 16.356537 33.460089 99.801349 971.917344 NaN
2025-05-11 6.168667 9.614289 16.434479 34.691473 111.647878 1638.262299 NaN
2025-05-18 5.928020 9.297409 16.046385 34.499371 116.290265 2314.290042 NaN
2025-05-25 5.703407 8.996325 15.664070 34.255273 120.689866 3399.079001 NaN
2025-06-01 5.544610 8.811524 15.521872 34.727377 130.098896 6813.121355 NaN
2025-06-08 5.277394 8.400087 14.833614 33.349798 126.630058 7839.832167 NaN
2025-06-15 5.111534 8.178765 14.561939 33.279971 132.322953 16723.525722 NaN
2025-06-22 4.852216 7.760677 13.808683 31.517870 124.857790 14753.708836 NaN